Consumer Activities

consumer-activites-data

Consumer Activities

Economic data used to gauge consumers’ moods & sentiment and ultimately spending level

Consumer activities account for 70% of US economy
Retail sales is the broadest indicator of consumer activities
Consumer confidence & sentiment are leading indicators for consumer activities

RETAIL SALES

Measures level of consumer spending on goods. It accounts for 70% of economic activity. Obtained from surveying 13,000 retailers. Overly strong retails sales not good for USD in long run.

Retail Sales UP => Inflation UP => Interest rates UP => USD UP

Retail Sales DOWN => Inflation DOWN => Interest rates DOWN => USD DOWN

retail-sales-data
consumer-confidence-data

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Examine how consumers feel about changes in labour market, economy & spending. The index consists of Present Situation index and Expectations index.

Confidence DOWN => Inflation DOWN => Interest rates DOWN => USD DOWN

Confidence UP => Inflation UP => Interest rates UP => USD UP

UNIV. OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT

Assessment of consumers’ attitude on change in business climate, personal finance & shopping. Consists of index of current economic conditions & consumers expectation.

Sentiment UP => Economy UP => USD UP

Sentiment DOWN => Economy DOWN => USD DOWN

consumer-sentiment-data

National Output

national-output-data

National Output

Economic data to measure values of goods and services produced in a country

GDP is the broadest measure of economic growth and economic health of a nation
ISM Manufacturing is a leading indicator for economic health of US economy

Gross Domestic Products (GDP)

Measures how fast/slow ecnomy is growing. It measures the number of goods and services produced in US.
3 reports: Advance, Preliminary and Final GDP
Ideal real annual growth rate is 3-3.5%

GDP UP => Inflation UP => Interest rates UP => USD UP

GDP DOWN => Inflation DOWN => Interest rates DOWN => USD DOWN

gross-domestic-product-gdp-data
gdp-price-index-data

GDP PRICE INDEX

Measures level of inflation. Only taking into accounts goods and services produced by US, i.e. exports only.

Inflation UP => Interests rates UP => USD UP

Inflation DOWN => Interests rates DOWN => USD DOWN

DURABLE GOODS ORDER

Measures number of orders of goods with life expectancy of more than 3 years, i.e. luxury goods. It is a key indicator for future economic activity.

Whenever consumers grow uneasy about economy, they would cut spending on durable goods.

Durable UP => economy UP => USD UP

Durable DOWN => economy DOWN => USD DOWN

durable-order-data
industrial-production-data

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

Records industry’s output and spare capacity.

Production UP => Growth UP => USD UP

Production DOWN => Growth DOWN => USD DOWN

ISM MANUFACTURING

First monthly report on the economy with focus on manufacturing sector.
ISM > 50 => expansion
ISM < 50 => contraction
ISM = 50 => no growth

ISM UP => Economy UP => USD UP

ISM DOWN => Economy DOWN => USD DOWN

ism-manufacturing-data
ism-non-manufacturing-data

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING

Monthly report focussing on service sector.

ISM UP => Economy UP => USD UP

ISM DOWN => Economy DOWN => USD DOWN

CHICAGO PMI

PMI stands for Purchasing Managers Index. Measures economic activity in midwest region, which is the industrial heartland of US.

PMI UP => USD UP

PMI DOWN => USD DOWN

chicago-pmi-data

Foreign Trades

foreign-trades-data

Foreign Trades

International trades data in goods and services

Difference between the value of US imports and exports for goods and services in a given month

Trade Balance

Monthly reports on US exports & imports of goods & services.
Also known as International Trades in Goods & Services. Trade performance determined by 3 factors:

1. Growth differential between US and other countries
2. Exchange rate of USD against other currencies
3. Inflation rates differential

Trade deficit lead to weak USD

Trade surplus lead to strong USD

trade-balance-data

Employment Workforce

employment-workforce-data

Employment and Workforce

3 Major employment and workforce-related economic data

Non-Farm Payrolls data is the most important workforce data affecting the markets each month
Released on the 1st Friday of each month

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Measure number of jobs created outside farming sector.
Obtained from surveying 400,000 companies and government agencies.

NFP UP => Income UP => Spending UP => Inflation UP => Interest Rates UP => USD UP

NFP DOWN => Income DOWN => Spending DOWN => Inflation DOWN => Interest Rates DOWN => USD DOWN

non-farm-payrolls-data
unemployment-data

Unemployment Rate

Measure Monthly Change in the job Market.
Obtained from surveying more than 60,000 households.
Usually lags 1-3 months before economic slowdown.

Unemployment DOWN => Income UP => Spending UP => Inflation UP => Interest rates UP => USD UP

Unemployment UP => Income DOWN => Spending DOWN => Inflation DOWN => Interest rates DOWN => USD DOWN

Weekly Claims

Measures number of unemployment benefits claimed each week.
Claims > 400k for few weeks signal slowdown.
Claims < 400k for few weeks signal economic recovery.

There are 2 data to look out for: initial claims and continuing claims

Claims UP => Income DOWN => Spending DOWN => Inflation DOWN => Interest rates DOWN => USD DOWN

Claims DOWN => Income UP => Spending UP => Inflation UP => Interest rates UP => USD UP

jobless-weekly-claims-data
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